Michael de Laine

By Michael de Laine, The Copenhagen Voice, 24 June 2009

Although he is “confident” a deal will be struck in Copenhagen later this year on finding a successor to the Kyoto protocol on tackling climate change, Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen is only optimistic “to a certain degree” that there will be agreement at the much-awaited summit in December. An up-to-date overview of research relevant to climate change shows that society already has many tools to deal effectively with the climate change challenge, but if they are not vigorously and widely implemented, adaptation to these challenges will not be achieved. The major ingredient missing is political will. Inaction is inexcusable.

Key climate indicators such as global mean surface temperature, sea-level rise and extreme climatic events are already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society and economy have developed, according to a report presented by leading scientists in Brussels on 18 June in preparation for COP15, the United Nations Climate Change Conference (UNCCC) in Copenhagen in December.

The report - the results of a so-called synthesis process - summarises new knowledge that was presented at the congress ‘Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions’ at the University of Copenhagen in March this year. Approximately 2,500 people from nearly 80 countries attended the congress, which had over 1,400 scientific presentations.

“We have covered new findings on climate science, climate impacts on society and the environment, and effective tools and approaches to deal with these challenges,” says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), a member of the team that prepared the report.

“The scientific findings presented in this update create by themselves a sense of urgency that we hope will lead the Copenhagen conference to success,” adds Schellnhuber, who advises the German government on global change issues.

COP15 will debate a follow-up to the Kyoto protocol.

“The bottom line is that limiting global warming to a manageable extent will require all our ingenuity for the climate-smart evolution of existing structures,” says Schellnhuber. Large-scale transformational measures would also be needed.

“If humanity is to learn from history and to limit these [climate change] threats, the time has come for stronger control of the human activities that are changing the fundamental conditions for life on Earth,” the report states.

World and national leaders and the general public must have an understanding of both how human activities are changing the climate and the implications of unchecked climate change if effective control measures are to be identified and accepted.

The report synthesises the conference presentations and conclusions into six key messages:

Climatic trends Greenhouse gas emissions and other climate aspects are near the upper boundary of the range of projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). With unabated emissions, many trends in climate will likely accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts.

Social and environmental disruption Societies, in particular poor nations and communities, and ecosystems are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change. Contemporary societies will find it difficult to cope with temperature rises above 2°C, which are likely to cause major societal and environmental disruptions.

Long-term strategy – Global targets and timetables Rapid, sustained, and effective ways to mitigate climate change based on coordinated global and regional action are required to avoid ‘dangerous climate change’. Weaker targets for 2020 increase the risk of serious impacts, and make the task of meeting 2050 targets more difficult and costly. Setting a credible long-term price for carbon and the adoption of policies that promote energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies are central to effective mitigation.

Equity dimensions Climate change has strongly differential effects on human societies and the natural world. An effective, well-funded adaptation safety net is required for people least capable of coping with climate change impacts, and equitable mitigation strategies are needed to protect the poor and most vulnerable. Tackling climate change should be seen as integral to the broader goals of enhancing socioeconomic development and equity throughout the world.

Inaction is inexcusable Society has many tools – economic, technological, behavioural, and managerial – to deal effectively with the climate change challenge, but if they are not vigorously and widely implemented, adaptation to the unavoidable climate change will not be achieved. A concerted effort to achieve effective and rapid adaptation and mitigation will result in a wide range of benefits, including job growth in the sustainable energy sector; reductions in the health, social, economic and environmental costs of climate change; and the repair of ecosystems and revitalisation of ecosystem services.

Meeting the challenge Societal transformation is required to meet the climate change challenge. This implies that a number of significant constraints must be overcome and critical opportunities seized. These include reducing inertia in social and economic systems; building on public desire for governments to act on climate change; reducing activities that increase greenhouse gas emissions; and promoting innovative leadership in government, the private sector and civil society. Linking climate change with broader sustainable consumption and production concerns, human rights issues and democratic values is crucial for shifting societies towards more sustainable development pathways.

“The newest evidence indicates that society faces serious risks even with a global temperature rise of only about 2°C. If society wants to minimize these risks, then action must be taken now,” says professor Katherine Richardson of the University of Copenhagen, who chaired both the Scientific Steering Committee of the congress and the report-writing team.

“Society has all the tools necessary to respond to climate change - the major ingredient missing is political will,” she adds. “Many societies are already struggling with the effects of climate change. If society wants to avoid even more serious, and in most cases irreversible, impacts of climate change, then there is very little time left. The greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are already at a level that is predicted to cause warming of around 2°C, so major emission cuts should be made immediately to retain climate change. The clock is ticking.”

“We cannot afford to take a business as usual approach to solving the climate challenge, because it will exacerbate all the existing problems we face, especially poverty,” adds professor Mohan Munasinghe, vice-chair of the IPCC’s fourth assessment report group, chairman of the Munasinghe Institute for Development, Colombo, and director-general of the Sustainable Consumption Institute, Manchester University.

Another member of the team that prepared the synthesis report following the University of Copenhagen scientific conference on climate change, Munasinghe says: “The poor countries and the most vulnerable citizens today are suffering the most due to natural disasters, hunger, and sickness, even though the developed countries are mainly responsible for the climate changes we are beginning to see. As climate change continues, the effects will also be seriously felt in developed countries.”

At the ‘Count Down to Copenhagen’ conference in Brussels, held on 18 June by the European Policy Centre (EPC), Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said the synthesis report presents “clear and unambiguous evidence that temperature is rising – and even quicker than we would have dared to think”.

Rasmussen stressed three aspects of what he expects will be delivered at COP15 in Copenhagen in December.

“First of all we have to reverse the trend of CO2 emissions,” he said. Secondly, we have to agree on a pathway towards achieving our targets. Thirdly, we have to set in motion the policies and measures to sustain it.”

Rasmussen said, “We need targets and national commitments on reductions of CO2 emissions that will lead to stabilization of global emissions in 2020 to a level in accordance with the 2˚C objective.

“We need to acknowledge that there may be different paths to our final destination. We need to ensure that - irrespective of the path that each of us chooses – it is clear that all of us are moving towards the same ambitious goals. And finally we need to ensure that there is consistency between the pace that we are setting and the planned arrival time at our destination.”

Industrialised countries such as the EU and the United States must find common ground on mid-term targets reflecting our high ambitions for the global agreement, the Danish Prime Minister said. “At the same time we need to engage with the emerging economies and developing countries and to come to terms with them on their contribution to the stabilisation in 2020. Given the size and the urgency of the climate challenge, we must support reductions where we get most tons of carbon dioxide for a given investment.”

Rasmussen said there is no doubt in his mind that future prosperity belongs to those who develop front-edge innovation and reform energy supplies, rather than to those who continue to burn coal, oil and gas.

“COP15 in Copenhagen may be one of the most important meetings of this new millennium - a meeting where we cannot afford to fail,” Lars Løkke Rasmussen said.

“It is my sincere hope that in 10-15 years, when we look back at 2009, we will see it as the year when world leaders finally stopped ignoring the strong evidence from the scientific community,” he said. “It was the year when we realized the potential of low-carbon transition, when we took the necessary decisions.

“We must find a way,” the Danish Prime Minister said. “And I remain confident we will find it.”

Rasmussen told the EPC website that he was only optimistic “to a certain degree” that agreement would be reached in December.

When asked by EPC how he might convince the public and the leaders of some other countries, such as Poland, of the importance of addressing global warming, the Danish Prime Minister admitted, “The problem is that it is difficult to see the impact of climate change on a day-to-day basis in the same way as, say, the impact of the current economic crisis. Our task is to make everyone aware of the significance of the issue.”

He said he is convinced it is possible to create economic growth and jobs at the same time as cutting CO2 emissions.

“I think it a good idea to link efforts on climate change with the economy. I see nothing wrong with this at all,” Rasmussen told the EPC website.

Click here to read the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) release.

Click here to read the climate change conference report.

Click here to read Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen’s address to the European Policy Centre (EPC).

Click here to read the EPC report.