Michael de Laine

By Michael de Laine, The Copenhagen Voice, 17 November 2009

Climate and energy ministers meeting in Copenhagen feel a sense of responsibility to ensure that the negotiations for an agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol for greenhouse gas emissions will not last for ever, but next month’s climate summit will not produce the final document wanted by developing countries – a binding agreement for emissions cuts. Climate activists’ “die-in” and calls for debt relief for developing countries added colour to the meeting.

Forty climate and energy ministers meeting in Copenhagen yesterday and today at Pre-COP, the last meeting before COP15, the UN climate summit to be held in Copenhagen next month, felt “a sense of responsibility to ensure that the negotiations for an agreement will not last for ever,” Danish Climate and Energy Minster Connie Hedegaard told journalists after the meeting.

Governments attending COP15 should reach agreement on a replacement for the Kyoto Protocol for greenhouse gas emissions, so global warming will be kept at less than 2°C.

As well as publishing their emissions reductions targets, the governments of the industrialised countries must agree on funding of climate change mitigation initiatives in the developing countries that risk being hard hit by global warming. Disbursements will be for both short-term and longer-term initiatives, and should apply from 2010-2013 and onwards.

But it is clear from recent political statements and today’s press conference that next month’s climate summit will not produce the final document wanted by developing countries – a binding agreement for emissions cuts.

“Copenhagen must deliver,” Hedegaard stressed. “A half agreement is no agreement. However, many issues remain to be resolved.”

Yvo de Boer, the executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), added that the ministers signalled their strong desire to succeed next month.

“We are expecting the industrialised countries to issue ambitious targets for emissions reduction,” he added.

Noting that the industrialised countries must raise their ambitions from the levels published so far, de Boer added: “The targets fall short of what science says is necessary. The US must also come with its figures.”

The US administration has indicated that President Barack Obama can be expected in Copenhagen if COP15 reaches a political agreement, which is in line with American wishes, at least at a time when the US Senate is debating proposed legislation for climate emissions and energy.

“We’re still talking of a Copenhagen Treaty,” de Boer said, “but this won’t be finalised in Copenhagen.”

Finalisation will presumably be next year.

Acknowledging that there will be a delay before an agreement can be signed, Hedegaard said this delay will not be five or ten years, but a matter of months.

“The 193 countries attending COP15 must sign and ratify the agreement as soon as possible,” she said, so it can replace the Kyoto Protocol when that expires at the end of 2012.

The UNFCC executive secretary now sees political agreement on key issues, with a binding agreement later.

In one interview he mentioned a brief agreement document with three or four annexes. These annexes would contain a list of the individual industrialised countries’ emissions reductions by 2020; details of what larger developing countries such as China and India will do to limit the growth of their emissions; and details of the financial aspects to mitigate the effects of climate change.

The Danish Climate and Energy Ministry said the issues discussed at the Pre-COP meeting included ambitious mid-term emission cuts by industrialised countries, ways and means to finance immediate action in the developing world and the importance of support to developing nations to adapt to climate change.

“At the Pre-COP there has been a very encouraging spirit,” Hedegaard said. “I have heard from everyone around the table today that Copenhagen must be a success. But half an agreement is no agreement. So we are still aiming for full package delivering on all building blocks in accordance with the Bali action plan.

“This gathering of ministers has signaled a strong desire to succeed, to make Copenhagen a real turning point,” de Boer. “Almost every day now, we see new commitments and pledges from both industrialised and developing nations. The political leadership that so many leaders promised at the UN climate summit in September is alive and well … and it will lead us to success in Copenhagen.”

Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen told the 40 assembled ministers that he had just returned from a meeting with leaders gathered for the summit in Singapore of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC).

“We had a very encouraging discussion and we reminded ourselves of the mandates and the deadline set at Bali,” Rasmussen said.

“I presented the vision for an ambitious, binding agreement in Copenhagen,” the Danish Prime Minister said. “This agreement provides for immediate and strong action within all areas of the Bali mandates. And sets us on track for a comprehensive legal framework.

“I am pleased with the positive response I got. Also the American President endorsed our approach, implying that all developed countries will need to bring strong reduction targets to the negotiating table in Copenhagen.”

Rasmussen said he believes political leaders can and must “deliver on the substance” in Copenhagen.

“Copenhagen should neither be a stopover nor a tiny stepping stone as some proclaim,” he said. “Let there be no doubt about our intentions. Given the time factor and the situation of individual countries, we must in the coming weeks focus on what is possible, and not let ourselves be distracted by what is not possible.”

The Danish Prime Minister said the Copenhagen Agreement should capture progress already achieved in the negotiations, and at the same time provide for immediate action already from next year.

“The Copenhagen Agreement should be concrete and binding on countries committing to reach targets, to undertake actions, and to provide agreed finance,” Rasmussen said. “Of course, developed countries must take lead by delivering substantial reductions and finance. We need numbers on the table in Copenhagen.

“The Copenhagen Agreement should mandate continued negotiations for a legal outcome and set a deadline for the conclusion. The Danish government firmly believes we should have a legal framework agreed - sooner rather than later.”

He added that the Copenhagen Agreement should have a solid content covering all the Bali building blocks: shared vision, mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology and capacity building.

“This will provide a strong impetus and guidance to further negotiations on a legal framework,” he said.

In addition, the agreement should provide for immediate action in all areas, including mitigation, adaptation and finance. Significant up-front finance should support early adaptation and mitigation efforts as well as capacity building and technology cooperation.

“The world needs an overall, ambitious and binding agreement,” said Sweden’s Minister for the Environment, Andreas Carlgren. “This job must be done now, not put off to the future. This task must be done in Copenhagen. Our meeting has confirmed that we will get a binding agreement with all the key elements and clear targets for all the world’s countries in Copenhagen. As a result of the Copenhagen meeting and with a clear timetable, the agreement will be given legal form.

“The Chinese and American delegations have confirmed the direction that President Barack Obama and President Jintao agreed on. That must be seen as a step forward even if concrete proposals have yet to be published.”

Outside the Tycho Brahe Planetarium in Copenhagen, which hosted the pre-COP15 meeting, white-clad climate activists ‘died’ to illustrate the 300,000 people a year who perish as a result of inaction on climate change.

“Global citizens demand answers to the critical question of whether leaders will commit in Copenhagen to the core elements of the treaty the world needs,” said Avaaz.org, the main organiser of the demonstration.

What is needed, the organisation added, are ambition carbon cuts, fair funding mounting to US$150 billion in new and additional cash each year, a framework for reaching a legally binding deal, and the development of strong enforcement mechanisms. “Or we’re headed for climate catastrophe.”

Oxfam handed out fliers to underline the developing countries’ rebuff of Denmark’s push for delay in Copenhagen.

The NGO wants a deal in Copenhagen that guarantees binding emissions reductions targets for rich countries and a substantial, ongoing financial package to help poor countries reduce their emissions and adapt to a changing target – and this funding must not be taken from existing overseas aid commitments.

“We have already seen the impacts of climate change on the livelihoods of poor men and women around the world, and worse is to come,” Oxfam said. “We have forecast that the number of people affected by climate-related disasters each year may increase by over 50% by 2015.”

Without urgent action by rich countries, “recent development gains will quickly stall and begin to roll back.”

Climate Debt Agents from MS ActionAid Denmark drew attention to the need for fair funding to developing countries to help them mitigate the impact of climate change.