Michael de Laine

By Michael de Laine, The Copenhagen Voice, 6 April 2009

New opinion polls give Denmark’s left-wing parties a majority, but there will be no general election now. Lars Løkke Ramussen, who replaced Anders Fogh Rasmussen as Prime Minister this weekend, wants to give the Liberal-Conservative coalition government’s initiatives to deal with the financial crisis time to work. The government still has the backing of the Danish People’s Party and the three parties see no need to ask the voters for a new mandate.

Although new opinion polls give Denmark’s left-wing parties - the Social Liberals, the Social Democrats, the Socialist People’s Party and the Red/Greens - a majority, they will not be able to turn these numbers into power at a general election for the time being.

Conducted on 4 April by Rambøll Management/Analyse Danmark for a daily newspaper, Morgenavisen Jyllands-Posten, the poll gives the red bloc 91 seats in the Danish parliament, Folketinget, while the blue bloc - the Conservatives, the Liberals and the Danish People’s Party - get 84 seats.

The poll was carried out on the day it was obvious that Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen of the Liberals would be named as secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO, from 1 August, succeeding Jaap de Hoop Scheffers.

This long-expected appointment implied that Fogh Rasmussen’s ‘crown prince’, Lars Løkke Rasmussen - Minister of Finance and deputy leader of the Liberals - would succeed Fogh Rasmussen. That change took place on Sunday, after the outgoing Prime Minister had confirmed through discussions with the leaders of the Conservatives, the Danish People’s Party and the Liberal Alliance that they would back Løkke Rasmussen as Prime Minister.

With a parliamentary majority behind him, as required by the constitution Løkke Rasmussen accepted a request by Queen Margrethe II to form a new government.

There is no constitutional basis for asking the voters for their backing at this time, despite vociferous demands by the left wing for a general election.

As the incoming Prime Minister wants to give the Liberal-Conservative coalition government’s initiatives to deal with the financial crisis time to work, as well as ensuring that Copenhagen will be remembered for a successful COP15 - the UN climate summit - in December, there will be no general election this year.

The government’s four-year mandate does not expire until 23 November 2011. For the past seven-and-a-half years the Liberals have been in a coalition government with the Conservatives, and they have had the backing of the Danish People’s Party (in reality, a very nationalistic, xenophobic version of the Social Democrats, appealing to the older generation and the poorly educated) during this time.

This backing has helped them push through legislation that is tough on immigrants and people on transfer incomes, while the government has aimed for - and usually been given - broader political backing for municipal reforms, restructuring of the police and other more general policies.

But the government is fatigued and its two parties have squabbled over minor issues in recent months while Fogh Rasmussen left Danish politics to muddle through without his leadership and the carefully prepared shooting scripts for which he is renowned as he lobbied for the NATO post.

On the left, the Social Democrats, the Socialist People’s Party and the small Red/Green Party are starting to get together after several years during which their policies have been taken up immediately by the right wing - indeed, in recent years both sides have played a sort of brinkmanship: taking the other side’s proposals and tweaking them bit, then calling them their own, even enacting them.

The closest collaboration between the Social Democrats and the Socialist People’s Party was in 1966, where they had a parliamentary majority and formed ‘the red cabinet’ until the Socialist People’s Party split to form the Left Socialists in 1967.

(In 1989, the Left Socialists, the Danish Communist Party and the Socialist Workers’ Party collaborated to form the Red/Greens or Unity List, which works for a society based on democratic socialism and ecology.)

Later the Social Democrats collaborated with and - from January 1993 until November 201 - formed a government with the Social Liberals (and at times the Centre Democrats and Christian People’s Party).

Although regarded as left of centre, the Social Liberals are no more centre-left than they have formed governments with the right wing (most recently in 1988-1990) and try to use their parliamentary influence to moderate government policies.

But following the global economic meltdown and what many people see as the government’s weak response (underfinanced tax cuts, bailing out the financial institutions, and limited stimulation of the economy), the Social Democrats, the Socialist People’s Party, the Red/Greens and the Social Liberals are now enjoying popular support.

But their getting together has not been without blemishes. The Social Democrats and the Socialist Peoples’ Party have started to emulate the government’s stringent views and laws on immigrants and asylum-seekers. And the Socialist Peoples’ Party has defected from one of its historic tenets - it was formed in opposition to NATO, but now sees a reformed NATO as good and useful, while the party is also becoming pro-EU.

The Social Liberals are pro-EU but warn of the negative consequences on immigration and integration of the increasing national patriotism seen in the policies of both the right wing and the Social Democrats and the Socialist Peoples’ Party.

Even the ultra-left in the Red/Greens can see political advantages in working more closely with the Social Democrats and the Socialist Peoples’ Party, although they are unlikely to be included in a left-centre coalition government.

As in a flashback to the 1970s, Denmark has moved rapidly from a period of economic boom and lack of labour to a recession and quickly rising unemployment fuelled by a financial crisis. Voters lost faith in the Liberal-Conservative coalition government and they voted three new parties into parliament in 1973. Two of them have since disappeared again, while the third - the Progress Party - evolved into the Danish People’s Party.

The political development of 1973 is unlikely to be repeated now, but recent months have seen the birth and shaky progress of the former New Alliance, now the Liberal Alliance, and of the Civil Centre, which both tend towards the right. Formed by defectors from existing parties in parliament, they are unlikely to survive a general election, but are politically useful for the coalition government.

A minor government reshuffle is expected in the coming days as Lars Løkke Rasmussen must find a replacement for himself at the ministry of finance and for Karen Jespersen, who has resigned from the broad ministry of social welfare, where she was also responsibility for housing, family affairs and gender equality.

A more comprehensive reshuffle can be expected at the start of next year, after COP15 and when the results of the financial crisis management initiatives can be seen, as the run-up to the next general starts.

The Liberal and Conservative voters want a change of direction, and that my come when the two parties write their common parliamentary programme. But the Conservatives’ leader, Lene Espersen, may start profiling the party more strongly in the hope of stealing votes from the Liberals.

At the same time, growing discontent about the clashes between Denmark’s policies on immigration and integration and international conventions and EU law on these subjects and about the influence of the Danish People’s Party on other political areas may result in voters spurning that party despite what it has done for underprivileged voters such as old-age pensioners and the poorly educated workers.

As a consequence, Denmark’s left-wing parties could be looking at victory at the next election. But the question is whether they can do that with policies that resemble those of the right wing?

The left wing must formulate its own profile. It has already said that the Danish economy needs stimulation in the form of large public works to modernise railways, public buildings and roads, which would keep construction industry unemployment down. And it could show how the public sector can play a useful and realistic, non-bureaucratic role in many areas of society.

The parties latched on to the popularity of Barack Obama months ago - now they must turn what they have learnt from their US idol into practical politics in a way that captivates and enthrals voters, making them think that these policies are the only way forward.