Michael de Laine

Denmark, UK still viable targets for Al-Qa’ida, says US Director of National Intelligence

By Michael de Laine, Copenhagen, 13th February 2009

Denmark, the UK and France are still Al-Qa’ida targets, said Dennis C Blair, the Director of National Intelligence in the US, in his Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

Denmark and the United Kingdom “remain viable targets” for Al-Qa’ida, which has also mentioned France prominently in recent months, Dennis C Blair, the Director of National Intelligence in the US said in his office’s Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

Published yesterday, the assessment looks at extremist groups that use terrorism.

“The groups with the greatest capability to threaten are extremist Muslim groups,” the assessment said. “In 2008 terrorists did not achieve their goal of conducting another major attack in the US homeland. We have seen notable progress in Muslim opinion turning against terrorist groups like Al-Qa’ida.”

According to the assessment, Al-Qa’ida over the past year-and-a-half has faced significant public criticism from prominent religious leaders and fellow extremists, primarily regarding the use of brutal and indiscriminate tactics—particularly those employed by Al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI) and Al-Qa’ida in the Lands of Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)— that have resulted in the deaths of Muslim civilians.

“Given the increased pressure posed by these criticisms, Al-Qa’ida leaders increasingly have highlighted enduring support for the Taliban and the fight in Afghanistan and Pakistan and in other regions where they portray the West being at war with Islam and Al-Qa’ida as the vanguard of the global terrorist movement,” Blair said. “A broad array of Muslim countries is nevertheless having success in stemming the rise of extremism and attractiveness of terrorist groups.”

The Director of National Intelligence said no major country is at immediate risk of collapse at the hands of extremist, terrorist groups, although a number—such as Pakistan and Afghanistan—have to work hard to repulse a still serious threat.

“Because of the pressure we and our allies have put on Al-Qa’ida’s core leadership in Pakistan and the continued decline of Al-Qa’ida’s most prominent regional affiliate in Iraq, Al-Qa’ida today is less capable and effective than it was a year ago,” Blair said.

The assessment sees the primary threat from European-based extremists stemming from Al-Qa’ida and Sunni affiliates who return from training in Pakistan to conduct attacks in Europe or the United States.

“We have had limited visibility into European plotting, but we assess that Al-Qa’ida is continuing to plan attacks in Europe and the West,” the Director of National Intelligence said. “Al-Qa’ida has used Europe as a launching point for external operations against the US homeland on several occasions since 9/11, and we believe that the group continues to view Europe as a viable launching point.

“Al-Qa’ida most recently targeted Denmark and the UK, and we assess these countries remain viable targets,” Blair added. “Al-Qa’ida leaders have also prominently mentioned France, most likely in reprisal for the 2004 headscarf ban.”

The social, political and economic integration of Western Europe’s 15 to 20 million Muslims is progressing slowly, creating opportunities for extremist propagandists and recruiters, the assessment stated.

“The highly diverse Muslim population in Europe already faces much higher poverty and unemployment rates than the general population, and the current economic crisis almost certainly will disproportionately affect the region’s Muslims,” the assessment said. “Numerous worldwide and European Islamic groups are actively encouraging Muslims in Europe to reject assimilation and support militant versions of Islam.”

The Director of National Intelligence believed that successful social integration in Europe would give most ordinary Muslims a stronger political and economic stake in their countries of residence, even though better educational and economic opportunities do not preclude radicalization among a minority.

European governments are undertaking a wide range of policies to promote Muslim social integration and counter radicalization, he added. In addition to pursuing socio-economic initiatives aimed at all immigrants, France, Germany, Italy and several smaller European countries have established various types of religious-based consultative councils composed of leading Muslim groups.

“Additionally, the United Kingdom has established the most diversified and energetic official outreach program to Muslims, largely reflecting concern about home-grown terrorism since the July 2005 London attacks,” the assessment stated. “Among other initiatives, the UK government has promoted the creation of an advisory board on mosque governance, a committee of Muslim theologians, and consultative bodies of Muslim women and youth. It also has held multiple high-profile conferences with Islamic scholars and government representatives from the Muslim world.”

Blair added that British police have made a conscious decision to seek the co-operation of non-violent radicals even while political authorities have encouraged former radicals and Sufis to speak out against hard-line political Islam.

“Visible progress toward an Arab-Israeli settlement, along with stability in Iraq and Afghanistan, would help undercut radicals’ appeal to Muslim foreign policy grievances,” Blair said.