Michael de Laine

More Gaza missiles may lead to Israeli retaliation as efforts to stop gun-running increase

By Michael de Laine, Copenhagen, 2nd February 2009

Although Hamas and Israel have both declared a ceasefire in the Gaza fighting, more missiles from Gaza could lead to Israeli retaliation - if the government can reach agreement internally. In the meantime, efforts are increasing to stop arms reaching Hamas from the sea or through tunnels between Egypt and the Gaza Strip.

Israeli jet fighters yesterday attacked three targets in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip and six tunnels between Egypt and Gaza, used to smuggle arms and food to the strip, newswires report.

There were no reports of casualties from the air attacks, which came after Palestinians had fired at least ten missiles at targets in Israel, injuring three people.

The Israeli retaliation was predictable despite the unilateral ceasefire declared by Hamas and Israel after three weeks of conflict in Gaza.

On Saturday, foreign minister Tzipi Livni said Israel would start a new offensive in the Gaza Strip if the rain of missiles across the border did not stop. This was in line with comments by Israel’s prime minister, Ehud Olmert. After the government’s weekly cabinet meeting, Olmert said, “We have said that there will be a serious and disproportionately strong Israeli reaction if there are missile attacks on the southern part of this country.”

But Ehud Barak, Israel’s defence minister, said today that there are no plans for a new Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip.

”It’s not our intention to start ‘Operation Cast Lead 2’,” Barak said, using the Israeli name for the 22-day long war in Gaza, according to Ritzau’s Bureau.

Hamas has not assumed the blame for Sunday’s missile attacks, but Israel says the responsibility for them and for other missile attacks since 18th January, when the two sides declared their ceasefires, is on Hamas.

In the meantime, American engineers are installing radar equipment that can detect the tunnels between Egypt and Gaza that are used for smuggling arms, explosives and food to the Palestinian enclave. Israel has asked Egypt on a number of occasions to do more to prevent the arms smuggling.

Later this week, Copenhagen will host a conference to discuss how arms smuggling from the sea into the Gaza Strip to support Hamas, which controls Gaza, can be stopped, and to plan the necessary initiatives.

Top civil servants and experts from the whole world are expected to attend the conference, which was called by US president Barack Obama. The countries attending are expected to be those that already have a naval presence in the area, either as part of the force that has patrolled the Lebanese coast for two-and-a-half years, with the aim of preventing arms shipments to Hizbollah in the south of the country, or in the international naval force in the Bay of Aden, which protects international shipping from Somalian pirates.

According to Danish daily newspaper Politiken, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak will today meet in Cairo with Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian leader, to discuss the progress of negotiations with Hamas.

Israel will hold a general election on 10th February. Both Barak, the Labour Party leader, and Livni, who heads the Kadima Party, are candidates for the post of prime minister, while Benjamin Netanyahu, who leads the right-wing party Likud, is expected to win the election.

According to newswires, neither Kadima nor Labour - the main parties in the ruling coalition government - has gained from the Gaza conflict if opinion polls are to be believed. A poll published in Ha’aretz indicates that Likud and its allies will get 65 seats, 12 more than the centre-left coalition. The Knesset parliament has 120 seats.

On the contrary: observers say that the Gaza conflict has underlined the necessity of strengthening national security - which is a major issue for Netanyahu.