Michael de Laine

Increased resources for training lift Russia’s military capability, defence research agency says

By Michael de Laine, Copenhagen, 6 March 2009

Russia’s military capability has increased in recent years as a consequence of increased resources for training and exercises, the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) says in a new report.

Given a continued favourable financial situation, Russian military strength will continue to grow also in the coming ten-year period, FOI believes.

But the development of qualitatively new military capabilities demands extensive structural changes within the Armed Forces and society at large.

Such development is today hampered by structural deficiencies in many sectors in the Armed Forces, particularly in personnel.

If the economic crisis becomes long-lasting, FOI adds, the Armed Forces will be forced to make hard choices concerning equipment supplies and exercises.

“If the political leadership decides to continue the military build-up irrespective of whether the economy allows it, there is an evident risk that Russia will be caught in a Soviet-like trap consisting of military structural thinking and an over-dimensioned military sector,” FOI says.

“The negative socio-economic effects of such a solution might lead to growing discontent and protests against the political leadership, which in the end might result in more repression,” the agency adds.

The report, ‘Rysk militär förmåga i ett tioårsperspektiv - ambitioner och utmaningar 2008 (Russian military capability in a ten-year perspective - ambitions and threats 2008)’, is the fifth in a series of assessments of Russian military capability in a ten-year-perspective, which have been published since 1998.

As in the previous four assessments, the assumption is that military capability is influenced by the development and character of the Russian leadership and society, FOI says.

Therefore, the military capability is analysed in relation to the development of Russian democracy, domestic and foreign policy, threat perceptions, security policy decision-making, economic development, etc.

Clik here for more information about the report.