Michael de Laine

Turkey is moving towards looser ties with Europe, closer ties to Asia, DIIS believes

By Michael de Laine, Copenhagen, 14 March 2009

It is possible to detect a certain rupture after the early years of Turkey’s AKP government, with the discontinuity marked by a shift in commitment from deep Europeanization to loose Europeanization and a simultaneous shift to soft Euro-Asianism.

The prospects for Turkey’s ambitions for full membership of the European Union (EU) do not appear to be very bright at the present time. The “grand coalition for special partnership” appears to be firmly entrenched. With key chapters for negotiation already suspended, the government in power is likely to resume its pursuit of a loose Europeanization agenda of gradual reforms that fall considerably short of deep commitment to full membership.

The counterpart of this in the foreign policy realm is an approach based on ’soft Euro-Asianism’, where the emphasis on the use of soft power continues and an attempt is made to develop friendly relations with all the neighbouring countries and with the EU no longer providing the main axis or reference point for foreign policy.

While the emphasis on the use of soft power remains a dominant characteristic of the AKP period as a whole, there appears to have been a sharp decline in enthusiasm for EU membership during the second phase.

There is a complex set of domestic and external influences that have progressively undermined enthusiasm for Turkey’s drive for EU membership.

In ‘The new wave of foreign policy activism in Turkey – Drifting away from Europeanization?’, a new report issued by the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS) has investigated the underlying reasons for the decline in enthusiasm for EU membership following the golden age of Europeanization and reforms during the early years of the AKP government focusing on both domestic and EU issues.

The report also points to internal and external political developments which may help to reverse the current drift away from Europeanization, thus giving possible grounds for optimism concerning the future of Turkey-EU relations.

“The new wave of foreign policy activism during the AKP era started out with a strong emphasis on Europeanization,” DIIS said in the report. “However, the AKP era itself displays elements of continuity and change in terms of foreign policy behaviour.

The institute’s central thesis is that there is significant continuity in the proactive and multilateral approach to policy-making.

“However,” DIIS said, “one is able to detect a certain rupture after the early years of the AKP government. The discontinuity is marked by a shift in commitment from deep Europeanization to loose Europeanization and a simultaneous shift to soft Euro-Asianism.”

According to the report, what is being increasingly observing in the current era is the emergence of an implicit, broad and mutually reinforcing coalition for a ’special partnership’, which seems to be deeply rooted in both Europe and Turkey.

“This constitutes a significant danger from the point of Turkey’s prospects for full membership,” the institute said. “The proponents of Turkish membership, both at home and abroad, appear to be increasingly less vocal and enthusiastic compared to their Turko-sceptic and Euro-septic counterparts.”

DIIS said the retreat into soft Euro-Asianism certainly does not signify the abandonment of the Europeanization project altogether.

“What it means, however, is that the EU will no longer be at the centre of Turkey’s external relations or foreign policy efforts,” the institute’s report noted. “This, in turn, is likely to have dramatic repercussions for the depth and intensity of the democratization process in Turkey, especially in key areas such as a complete reordering of military-civilian relations, an extension of minority rights and a democratic solution to the Kurdish problem, as well as counteracting the deeply embedded problem of gender inequality.”

According to the institute, there is no doubt that key elements exist in the Turkish state and Turkish society that would be quite content with the loose Europeanization solution, given the perceived threats posed by a combination of deep Europeanization and deep democratization for national sovereignty and political stability.

“The fears of deep Europeanization are not simplyconfined to the defensive nationalist camp, however,” the report stated. “There also exists considerable conservatism, even in the much more globally oriented AKP circles, when it comes to deep democratization, as is clearly evident from the resistance to the repeal of Article 301 of the penal code.”

Is it likely that the drift towards loose Europeanization and soft Euro-Aianism will be reversed?

“The likelihood of a major reversal in the immediate term appears to be rather low,” DIIS said. “From a longer-term perspective, two possibly mutually reinforcing developments may produce a renewed impetus for the deep Europeanization agenda.”

The first element would involve a new enlargement wave in Europe, covering both the Balkans and eastern Europe; Turkey, which has already reached the point of accession negotiations, will not be immune to such a process.

The second element would involve the emergence of a strong counter-movement from the more liberal and Western-oriented segments of Turkish society, who will place Europeanization and reform firmly on its political agenda.

DIIS sees Turkey continuing to be an important regional power, even if its foreign policy stance is characterized by soft Euro-Asianism.

However, the institute believed, the first-best choice for Turkish foreign policy would be a commitment to deep Europeanization; in other words, making EU membership the pivotal element or central axis of its multi-dimensional foreign policy.

“The benefits of deep Europeanization have already manifested themselves in terms of (a) strong economic performance, (b) major steps towards democratic consolidation, and (c) a foreign policy based on soft power,” DIIS said. “These three elements are clearly interdependent and tend to create a kind of virtuous cycle, which would be very difficult to sustain under the second-best choice of loose Europeanization.

“Following the recent Constitutional Court decision, one may feel somewhat more optimistic about the future and hope that the AKP will be able to revitalize its commitment to deep Europeanization and reform that had been a hallmark of its policy in the early years of its tenure in government.”

The DIIS report said Turkey has a critical role to play in the enhancement of peace and stability in its volatile region as a pivotal power with substantial influence and capabilities.

However, it can play a more constructive and effective role as a benign rather than a coercive power if it successfully fulfils four challenging tasks by (1) consolidating its democracy; (2) maintaining good neighbourly relations; (3) achieving a balance in the troublesome EU-Turkey-US triangle and (4) operating within a predominantly European framework while pursuing a multilateral foreign policy with extensive Eurasian ties.

“On all fronts,” DIIS said, “Turkey has a challenging period ahead of it, during which it needs to overcome numerous domestic and international obstacles that will not only determine the future path of Turkish foreign policy, but will also have very significant regional implications.”

The onset of the global economic crisis has helped to inject a further element of uncertainty into the already uncertain trajectory of Turkey-EU relations and the future direction of Turkish foreign policy in general, the report stated.

The Turkish economy experienced a severe down-turn in performance in the later part of 2008. There is growing pessimism concerning the performance of the economy, and recent figures indicating falling growth, rising unemployment and declining inflows of foreign direct investment point towards a new era of relative stagnation, making a sharp contrast with the economic boom of the post-2001 period.

It is conceivable that the sharp decline in economic performance will help to reactivate the EU anchor and create a major incentive in the direction of strengthening Turkey’s relations with the European Union and the United States. The fact that Turkey is currently in the process of signing a new stand- by agreement clearly points in that direction.

It is also likely that the weakening of economic performance will reduce the scope for the assertive and multi-dimensional foreign policy strategy with no firm trans-Atlantic or EU axis that was observed during the second phase of the AKP government, forcing Turkey to align its policies much more closely with the Western alliance in the process.

“At the same time, however, a prolonged recession in the United States and Europe may also produce a counter-trend,” DIIS warned. “Turkey may increasingly find itself in a position of trying to diversify its economic relationships in order to revive its falling rate of growth. This, in its turn, may strengthen the present tendency in Turkish foreign policy in direction of a strategy of loose Europeanization combined with soft Euro-Asianism.”